Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
